FSPR (FSPro)

FSPro is a probabilistic two-dimensional fire spread model used as a strategic decision aid tool looking at fire progression risk as it is determined by uncertainty in the fire environment. 

To run the FSPro model in the FMSF, there are three required and one optional input:

  • A fuelscape GeoTIFF

  • An input file

  • An ignition shapefile

  • A barrier shapefile (optional)

 

GeoTIFF

The FSPro model requires a GeoTIFF landscape/fuelscape.  The GeoTIFF is uploaded to the FMSF, prior to making a run request (see Upload a GeoTIFF), and the ID is used when making the model run request (see Run a Model).

The following bands must be present in the GeoTIFF in this order (additional bands may exist starting with #9):

Band #

Band Name

Units

1

Elevation (DEM)

meters

2

Slope

degrees

3

Aspect

degrees

4

Fuel Model

categorical

5

Canopy Cover

percent

6

Canopy Height

meters * 10

7

Canopy Base Height

meters * 10

8

Canopy Bulk Density

kg/m3 * 100

 

Current cell limits for FSPro within the FMSF is 2,500,00. If you are unsure how many cells comprise the GeoTIFF you are using to run the model, Retrieve Minimum Model Run Resolution for a GeoTIFF can be used to determine both the cell counts and the minimum resolution the model may be run.

 

Ignition & Barrier Shapefiles

FSPro also uses two spatial inputs: ignition shapefile (required) and barrier shapefile (optional). Best practices dictate these files should be in the same projection and coordinate system as the GeoTIFF landscape but that is not a requirement.

To use a shapefile, it must be uploaded to the system prior to attempting to run the model as the assigned ID is used to specify which file to use. For details on shapefile functionality in the FMSF see the Shapefile Functionality section.

The geometry type of an ignition shapefile can be polygon or polyline. Point and multipoint file types will result in a failure.

The geometry of a barrier shapefile can be polygon or polyline.

 

Input File

The various input and output switches included in the input file (*.txt or *.input) passed to the FMSF are documented in the following sections with the valid ranges for each switch.

Example FSPro input file including all the input and output switches.

 

Model Setting Switches

Duration: 11 

NumFires: 2000 

MaxLag: 30 

PolyDegree: 9 

SavePerimeters: 1

 

Duration: X where X is an integer representing the number of days to simulate each fire in the run. This includes any forecast days. 

  • NOTE: Duration cannot be greater than the number of days in the historical weather stream minus the number of days within the current weather stream.

  • Valid range: 1-14

NumFires: X where X is an integer representing the number of fires to simulate.

  • Valid range: 1-2000 

MaxLag: X where X is the number of days of historical ERC information used to calculate the ERC regression to the mean that occurs during modeling.

  • NOTE: MaxLag cannot be greater than NumWxCurrYear. 

  • Valid range: 1-364 

PolyDegree: X where X is the number of degrees of fit used to generate the polynomial that defines the ERC regression to the mean that occurs during modeling.

  • Valid range: 0-15

SavePerimiters: X where X is an integer Boolean value (0 or 1) that specifies whether the perimeters should be saved in a shapefile.

 

Wind Switches

CalmValue: 2.52 

NumWindDirs: 8 

45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360 

NumWindSpeeds: 5 

3 6 9 12 15 

WindCellValues:

6.03 1.81 1.88 2.70 12.45 12.14 3.18 2.77 

1.04 0.96 1.14 2.27 15.71 7.76 0.87 0.96 

0.08 0.06 0.02 0.14 2.49 0.41 0.08 0.07 

0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.32 0.03 0.00 0.02 

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 

 

CalmValue: X where X is a floating-point number representing the proportion of winds which will be calm (0 MPH).

  • NOTE:  The CalmValue combined with the WindCellValues are normalized to percentages with three decimal points of precision when FSPro is run. The normalized values are accessible in the FSPro input file that is returned with the requested FSPro outputs.

  • Valid range: 0-100

NumWindDirs: X where X is an integer representing the number wind directions within the wind direction matrix. Immediately following this line should be the matrix.

  • Valid range: 4-8

Wind direction matrix must include a single line with X values space delimited:

  • Azimuth of the 20 ft wind

    • Valid range: 0-360

NumWindSpeeds: X where X is an integer representing the number wind speeds within the wind speed matrix. Immediately following this line should be X space delimited wind speeds in ascending order.

  • Valid range: 1-10

Wind speed matrix must include a single line with X values space delimited:

  • 20 ft wind speed in MPH

    • Valid range: 0-200

WindCellValues: is the header for the wind direction matrix and a wind speed matrix. Immediately following this line is a matrix where each value represents the proportion of the wind speed/direction occurrence to be used in the simulation. 

The wind cell matrix includes NumWindDirs: X columns by NumWindSpeeds: X lines with NumWindDirs: X space delimited values.

  • Proportion of the wind speed/wind direction occurrence

    • Valid range: >0

 

ERC Classes

NumERCClasses: 5 

76 82 3.8 4.3 6.2 38.2 67.1 360 0.15 10 

68 76 4.4 5.0 7.1 44.7 72.7 300 0.1 0 

61 68 4.5 5.1 7.5 58.2 84.3 240 0.05 0 

54 61 5.0 5.8 8.8 70.7 95.1 180 0.01 0 

46 54 6.0 7.8 10.1 75.5 99.3 120 0.0 0 

 

NumERCClasses: X where X an integer representing the number of ERC classes used in the simulation. Immediately following this line should be X lines of ERC class definitions, in descending order by ERC value.

  • Valid range: 1-10

ERC class entries must include the following 10 values in order, per line, space delimited:

  • Minimum ERC value

    • NOTE: ERC classes cannot overlap. Except for the first class, the minimum value of the first class should be the same as the maximum value of the next class.

    • Valid range: 0-250

  • Maximum ERC value

    • Valid range: 0-250

  • 1-hr dead fuel moisture content percent

    • Valid range: 2-300

  • 10-hr dead fuel moisture content percent

    • Valid range: 2-300

  • 100-hr dead fuel moisture content percent

    • Valid range: 2-300

  • Live herbaceous fuel moisture content percent

    • Valid range: 2-300

  • Live woody fuel moisture content percent

    • Valid range: 2-300

  • Burn period (in minutes)

    • Valid range: 0-1440

  • Spotting probability

    • Valid range: 0-1

  • Spotting delay (in minutes)

    • Valid range: 0-60

 

Historical ERC Stream Switches

NumERCYears: 13 

NumWxPerYear: 227 

HistoricERCValues:

0 0 0 5 2 0 6 10 0 10 0 0 2 4 9 0 4 11 12 ... 43 

0 0 2 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 3 7 11 13 13 4 ... 23 

0 0 0 4 6 0 0 0 3 0 1 4 7 12 15 20 15 15 ... 36 

... 

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 12 15 11 15 15 8 0 0 ... 32 

AvgERCValues:

5.31 5.31 5.25 7.77 6.38 3.77 2.0 4.0 3.08 ... 20.91 

StdDevERCValues:

9.58 8.55 6.54 8.76 9.17 6.61 3.79 4.61 ... 14.01 

 

NumERCYears: X where X is an integer representing the number of years of historic ERC streams.

  • Valid range: 1-100

NumWxPerYear: X where X is an integer representing the number of ERC values present in each historic ERC stream.

  • Valid range: 30-365

HistoricERCValues: is the header for the historic ERC value matrix. Immediately following this line is the matrix.

The historic ERC matrix is NumERCYears lines of NumWxPerYear space delimited values.

  • Historic ERC value

    • Valid range: 0-250

AvgERCValues: is the header for the average ERC values matrix. Immediately following this line is the matrix.

The average ERC matrix is a single line of NumWxPerYear space delimited values.

  • Average ERC value

    • NOTE: The average ERC value cannot be greater than the largest value in the HistoricERCValues matrix. If this occurs an error is returned.

    • Valid range: 0-250

StdDevERCValues: is the header for the standard deviation ERC values matrix. Immediately following this line is the matrix.

The standard deviation ERC matrix is a single line of NumWxPerYear space delimited values.

  • Valid range: 0-3/5th of the maximum value in the HistoricERCValues

 

Current ERC Stream Switches

NumWxCurrYear: 145 

CurrentERCValues:

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 12 15 11 15 ... 84 

 

NumWxCurrYear: X where X is the number of ERC values for the current year leading up to ignition.

  • NOTE: X should be greater than or equal to MaxLag and less than NumWXPerYear minus Duration.

  • Valid range: 0-364

CurrentERCValues: is the header for the current ERC values matrix. Immediately following this line is the matrix.

The current ERC matrix is a single line of NumWxCurrYear space delimited values.

  • Current ERC value

    • Valid range: 0-250

 

Forecast Switches

The forecast switches are optional. If used, every fire simulation run by the model will use the same ERC value, wind speed, and wind direction for the first N days of the modeling where N is the number of forecasts.

NumForecast: 2 

75 3 304 

77 8 210 

 

NumForecast: X where X is an integer representing the number of forecast days to be used for each fire in the simulation. Immediately following this line is the number of forecast days matrix.

  • Valid range: 0-30

Number of forecast days must include the following 3 integers in order per line, space, or tab delimited:

  • ERC

    • Valid range: 0-250

  • 20 ft wind speed in MPH at the time of the record

    • Valid range: 0-100

  • Azimuth of the 20 ft wind at the time of the record

    • Valid range: 0-360

 

Canopy Characteristic Switches

CROWN_FIRE_METHOD: Finney 

 

CROWN_FIRE_METHOD: cfmethod where cfmethod is either ‘ScottReinhardt’ or ‘Finney’. 

  • Valid range: ScottReinhardt, Finney

 

Spotting Switches

SPOTTING_SEED: 863039 

 

SPOTTING_SEED: X where X is typically a randomly generated value; however, it can be specified in the input file.

  • Valid range: 0-999999

 

Barrier Fill Switch

MTT_FILL_BARRIERS: 1

 

MTT_FILL_BARRIERS: X where X is either 1 for true or 0 for false. 

  • Valid range: 0,1

 

Output Switches

PROBABILITY_GRID:

ARRIVAL_TIME:

AVERAGE_FLAMELENGTH:

FSPROTIMINGS:

 

The FSPro fire behavior model will produce up to five gridded output layers as well as seven non-gridded output types. 

Outputs are requested by using the appropriate switch(s) in the input file. For gridded outputs, the order the switch(s) are listed in the input file correlate to the band order in the output GeoTIFF.

 

Grid outputs (part of the multi-band GeoTIFF)

Switch

Output Layer 

Units 

PROBABILITY_GRID:

FSPro Probability Grid

probability

ARRIVAL_TIME:

FSPro Arrival Time

days

AVERAGE_FLAMELENGTH:

FSPro Average Flame Length

meters

SUPPRESSION_EFFECT:

FSPro Suppression Effect

probability

IGNITION:

FSPro Ignition Grid

class

 

Non-grid outputs

Switch

Description

FSPROARRIVAL:

Shapefile that contains the burn probability that a fire burned the cell on the given day

FSPROPERIMETERS:

Shapefile that contains the perimeters for each simulation

FSPROEVENTCOVERAGE:

Text file of the expected versus observed occurrences of ERC values and wind conditions

FSPRODAILYACRES:

Text file of the number of acres burned for each day of each simulated fire

FSPRODAYTYPES:

CSV file of the FlamMap run scenarios

FSPROFIRESTREAMS:

Text file of the fire number and day types used for each of the fires

FSPROTIMINGS:

Text file that simulation information related to the FSPro run

FSPROCONTAINSUMMARY:

Text file that summaries the containment probability

 

Switches Not Currently Supported by the FMSF

The FMSF does not currently support all switches available within the FSPro model. Those not supported are listed below.

CUSTOM_FUELS_FILE: Filename where filename is the name of the desired custom fuels file to use.

  • The FMSF does not support custom fuel models currently.